Scuderia Ferrari

[SERB]

Справедливости ради это не мы пишем, а AUTOSPORT

я шучу. дело в том, что даже гадания аутоспорта (и они сами это признают) всего лишь гадания и прикидки.

О, да, они так спокойные, что распространяют слухи в Италии, что в Бахрейне Феррари имели другую систему для время измерения и начинали круг не там, где все, а на обратной прямой.

ссылку дай если не сложно на представителя феррари, произносившего то, что ты привела.

[Cavallino]

Во время первой симуляции были какие-то проблемы. Алонсо сам говорил, что приходилось каждый круг что-то редактировать. И потом, эта была первая симуляция, то, что делал Мерс еще в Хересе.

Симуляция Кими проходила одновременно с Халком, здесь еще можно как-то объективно сравнивать. Но опять же, у Кими был софт, медиум, медиум, а у немца медиум, софт софт. Общее время их симуляции примерно одинаково.

Крыло Сэра.

http://www.formula1.com/news/technical/2014/0/1140.html

[SERB]

Да никто ни снаружи ни внутри команды не может и не желает поверить в провал от самой великой и легендарной Феррари

да ладно... ты никто, что ли? ты-то ведь веришь ))) да и ещё и щедро делишься этой верой с остальными.отсыпаешь оптом и в розницу. не нашёл ещё знаменитую байку доменикали, что грозный мерседес напугал феррари?

[Ferdi]

да ладно... ты никто, что ли? ты-то ведь веришь ))) да и ещё и щедро делишься этой верой с остальными.отсыпаешь оптом и в розницу. не нашёл ещё знаменитую байку доменикали, что грозный мерседес напугал феррари?

Я не верю, я знаю - это разные категории, а скоро узнают все. На меня гипноз статистики и громкого бренда не действует, всё делают люди, а персонал в Феррари сегодня может добиться успеха только в порядке чуда, но чудеса случаются редко.

Какие байки, Стефано не нашёл ничего лучше как объяснить бледный вид Скудерии уже при новом регламенте тем что Мерседес - чудовищно большая организация по сравнению с крохотной Феррари, как будто весь Штутгарт над этим мотором работал, забросив все серийные машины, такие речи - просто позор.

[Fixxxer89]

Справедливости ради это не мы пишем, а AUTOSPORT

а может кто-нибудь вытащить предгоночные прогнозы Автоспорта за прошлые 5 лет? Особенно желателен 2009-й

[First Lady]

я шучу. дело в том, что даже гадания аутоспорта (и они сами это признают) всего лишь гадания и прикидки.

ссылку дай если не сложно на представителя феррари, произносившего то, что ты привела.

Хочеш йезуитствовать? Я могу играть ету игру.

Если есть ссылки от представителя Феррари, сказала бы: "Есть изявление представителя Феррари". А я сказала: "распространяют слухи".

[First Lady]

Маркиз вещал Газетте, что есть проблемы с софтуером.

[jurykovalev]

а может кто-нибудь вытащить предгоночные прогнозы Автоспорта за прошлые 5 лет? Особенно желателен 2009-й

Как-то так? но там подходы несколько иные, а по 13 вообще какого-то чёткого прогноза не нашёл.

2009

The 2009 AUTOSPORT gamble

At the start of every season, the AUTOSPORT team members do the brave thing and put their bets down on who will be the world champion and which team will win the constructors' championship. Each member predicts the top five drivers, ranking them from first to fifth, and likewise for the top five teams. The Number One receives five points, Number Two receives four points, and so forth. Collecting together everyone's votes results in what AUTOSPORT predicts will be the standings at the end of the season. In eight months we'll know if we rule or if we're just a bunch of fools...

Tony Dodgins (TD)

1. Kimi Raikkonen; 2. Felipe Massa; 3. Jenson Button; 4. Rubens Barrichello; 5. Robert Kubica

1. Ferrari; 2. Brawn GP; 3. BMW Sauber; 4. Toyota; 5. Red Bull

Not often do you look at pre-season testing and see a margin as clear as the Brawn showed in the Barcelona test. Importantly, it was quick over long runs too. But it doesn't have any sponsors, so how long will the money last and who's paying? For that reason I'll go with Ferrari. On the evidence of last year you'd probably go with Massa but I've a feeling the tyres might suit Kimi relatively better.

There seems to be something fundamentally wrong with the new McLaren. If the team solves the problem with the car it will be competitive, but the rest are all so close that, if it doesn't, it will be in big trouble. The first thing new commentator Jonathan Legard could be tasked with is explaining why Jenson Button is on the Melbourne pole and the new Messiah is at the back...

Jonathan Noble (JN)

1. Felipe Massa; 2. Lewis Hamilton; 3. Kimi Raikkonen; 4. Jarno Trulli; 5. Robert Kubica

1. Ferrari; 2. Toyota; 3. BMW Sauber; 4. McLaren; 5. Brawn GP

Felipe Massa will prove that his form in 2008 was no fluke, as he bids to make the most of the solid car Ferrari has built for 2009. That said, there will be plenty of fluctuating fortunes this year, with early season success for Brawn and late season success for Lewis Hamilton, resulting in many phases to the championship.

Edd Straw (ES)

1. Felipe Massa; 2. Kimi Raikkonen; 3. Jenson Button; 4. Jarno Trulli; 5. Lewis Hamilton

1. Ferrari; 2. Brawn GP; 3. Toyota; 4. Renault; 5. McLaren

This, of all seasons, is nigh on impossible to predict. All you can go on is testing form and which teams have the resources to stay strong through the season. On balance, it's likely Ferrari could have the strongest package, but if Brawn GP's testing form is to be believed – particularly over long runs – the team will start off with a handy edge. But the competitive order will change a lot, particularly early on in the season.

Dieter Rencken (DR)

1. Felipe Massa; 2. Robert Kubica; 3. Lewis Hamilton; 4. Kimi Raikkonen; 5. Fernando Alonso

1. Ferrari; 2. BMW Sauber; 3. McLaren; 4. Brawn GP; 5. Renault

Massa proved his championship mettle beyond doubt last year, and knows how to play winning games. But Kubica is hungrier and more focused than the Brazilian, although the Pole's BMW is probably about one per cent shy of Ferrari's pace – providing all the elements for a fascinating duel, in which Felipe scores a win over Robert.

If McLaren manages to turn its MP4-24 around soon it should beat Mercedes customer Brawn; if not, Ross and his team will mix it for podiums. Expect Fernando and Renault to play a waiting game, too.

Pablo Elizalde (PE)

1. Kimi Raikkonen; 2. Robert Kubica; 3. Lewis Hamilton; 4. Fernando Alonso; 5. Felipe Massa

1. Ferrari; 2. BMW Sauber; 3. McLaren; 4. Renault; 5. Toyota

My instincts say Ferrari will be the team to beat and Raikkonen will be back on form after a lousy 2008. But BMW Sauber will not be far behind, and Kubica will be a championship protagonist all year long.

Based on the team's own words, I expect McLaren to have a difficult start to the season, leaving Hamilton to play catch-up in the second half. Alonso and Renault will spring a few surprises and Toyota will win its first race.

Mark Glendenning (MG)

1. Rubens Barrichello; 2. Robert Kubica; 3. Jenson Button; 4. Kimi Raikkonen; 5. Timo Glock

1. Brawn GP; 2. BMW Sauber; 3. Ferrari; 4. Toyota; 5. Red Bull

I didn't quite pull names out of a hat, but it was close – with so many unanswered questions ahead of Australia, trying to predict the outcome of the 2009 season is frankly pointless. Anyway, Brawn's test pace looked like the real deal and I liked Barrichello's form last season, so he gets the nod.

Kubica seems happy in the new BMW but the Pole may not use KERS as much as Heidfeld this year, so much depends on whether that affects his results. Raikkonen could bounce back from a disappointing 2008 if the F60 is reliable, and while Glock might not have Trulli's outright pace, expect him to scoop up more points over the course of the year.

Richard Barnes (RB)

1. Fernando Alonso; 2. Kimi Raikkonen; 3. Lewis Hamilton; 4. Felipe Massa; 5. Jenson Button

1. Ferrari; 2. Renault; 3. McLaren; 4. BMW Sauber; 5. Brawn GP

Renault is a great innovator, and the team and star driver Alonso will come out swinging in terms of the new technical regulations. However, Ferrari's winning pedigree and two top drivers will secure another constructors' championship for Maranello.

McLaren will struggle at times but is too good to be down for long. Hamilton will play catch-up as the season progresses, but will ultimately fall just short. Brawn-Mercedes will have its moments but will lose ground gradually as other teams out-develop the squad.

BMW will again accumulate points effectively but its drivers will share the successes evenly, hurting the chances of both to challenge for the championship.

Thomas O'Keefe (TO)

1. Kimi Raikkonen; 2. Robert Kubica; 3. Jenson Button; 4. Lewis Hamilton; 5. Felipe Massa

1. Ferrari; 2. BMW Sauber; 3. Brawn GP; 4. McLaren; 5. Toyota

Kimi is the driver with the most wins, 17, and is motivated after the drubbing his reputation took in 2008. He has been first or second in every test session in which he participated. Kubica is as tough and fast as they come but needs a perfect car under him, which the methodical BMW team will supply.

The "Brawnda" will be sufficiently ahead of the aero curve to permit Jenson to eke out a win or two before rule adjustments level the playing field for the aero-swift Brawn GP and Toyota teams.

Hamilton will come down to F1 Earth after two charmed seasons, make a lot of mistakes, be penalised, finish strong but not strong enough. As Kimi succeeds, Massa will be clashing with the McLarens and Trulli in the second order and have as many wins as DNFs.

Andrew Van de Burgt (AV)

1. Kimi Raikkonen; 2. Felipe Massa; 3. Robert Kubica; 4. Jarno Trulli; 5. Jenson Button

1. Ferrari; 2. BMW Sauber; 3. Toyota; 4. Brawn GP; 5. Renault

The Brawn may have won the winter test war, but without the big bucks behind it the team will struggle to keep pace in the development war. This will leave the door open for Kimi and Ferrari to claim the title following a season-long duel with BMW Sauber's Robert Kubica, who once again transcends the pace of his car to mount a fight for the title.

Charles Bradley (CB)

1. Fernando Alonso; 2. Felipe Massa; 3. Robert Kubica; 4. Lewis Hamilton; 5. Kimi Raikkonen

1. Ferrari; 2. Renault; 3. BMW Sauber; 4. McLaren; 5. Brawn GP

Alonso is the best driver in Formula 1, coupled with Renault who have proved themselves maestros at discovering big development jumps in a short turnaround period. Ferrari will prove to be their closest rivals, and probably win the most races, but as that rule doesn't count yet, Alonso will be crowned a three-time champion.

Matt Beer (MB)

1. Robert Kubica; 2. Kimi Raikkonen; 3. Felipe Massa; 4. Fernando Alonso; 5. Lewis Hamilton

1. Ferrari; 2. BMW Sauber; 3. McLaren; 4. Brawn GP; 5. Toyota

A clean slate for the rulebook and some of the closest and most bizarre (team rescued with weeks to spare on top, reigning world champion miles off the pace) testing results for years make it foolish to even try a prediction for the 2009 season.

So my shot in the dark has the ever more impressive Kubica doing enough to edge clear of a resurgent Raikkonen, who will re-establish a narrow advantage over Massa. Alonso will perform more miracles, but won't quite have a title-winning car.

I'd be delighted if Brawn's testing pace translated into season-long form, but that's surely a fairytale too far, while McLaren and Hamilton are too good to spend all year in the midfield.

Steven English (SE)

1. Jenson Button; 2. Nick Heidfeld; 3. Jarno Trulli; 4. Kimi Raikkonen; 5. Nico Rosberg

1. Brawn GP; 2. BMW Sauber; 3. Ferrari; 4. Toyota; 5. Williams

I was on holiday during the most vital two weeks of the pre-season and everything turned upside down while I wasn't looking!

For the sake of much-craved novelty, let's imagine the testing form will stick. Button to come back from his lowest low to storm to the title in Brawn's debut season. Five different teams in the top five, Heidfeld and Raikkonen shaking off 2008 to lead their respective camps, Hamilton, Massa, Kubica, Alonso all to be also rans... OK, unlikely perhaps, but we'll all tune in to find out!

Michele Merlino (MM)

1. Kimi Raikkonen; 2. Felipe Massa; 3. Robert Kubica; 4. Fernando Alonso; 5. Lewis Hamilton

1. Ferrari; 2. BMW Sauber; 3. Renault; 4. McLaren; 5. Brawn GP

I must admit, I'm largely influenced by the winter testing results, even if I should know by now that they often don't mean much. But at least one thing has to be taken into consideration: McLaren has problems with its new car. The team will sort it out, but this will take time.

Who else remains? Ferrari, as in the last ten years, did little wrong, and on to BMW Sauber: the Germans have a point to prove, as they alone insisted on keeping KERS while their competitors wanted to trash it.

With this in mind, the drivers' championship is sorted out automatically, with two 'wild cards' in fourth and fifth place. And let's hope the new rules carry some more action on track and less in the pits.

Craig Scarborough (CS)

1. Felipe Massa; 2. Fernando Alonso; 3. Robert Kubica; 4. Kimi Raikkonen; 5. Lewis Hamilton

1. Ferrari; 2. BMW Sauber; 3. Renault; 4. Brawn GP; 5. Toyota

With season long consistency paying off I would opt for Massa; his performances were less up-and-down last year and the Ferrari may be the only car fast at both the start and end of the year. Alonso, with equal consistency, will grab second place. The remaining three will all score regular points, but I doubt their ability to string a full season together.

Two solid drivers in a team is what will reward in the constructors' championship. Hence, Ferrari should come out on top, followed by the equally consistent BMW and Renault. McLaren will lose out due to its slow start to the year, leaving the up-and-coming Brawn and Toyota teams with strong seasons.

David Wright (DW)

1. Lewis Hamilton; 2. Felipe Massa; 3. Robert Kubica; 4. Jenson Button; 5. Fernando Alonso

1. Ferrari; 2. McLaren; 3. BMW Sauber; 4. Brawn GP; 5. Renault

I'm quite confident that my predictions won't even be close to being correct, because this year I really have no confidence in who is quick and who isn't. I suspect McLaren will be more competitive than it appears to be and Brawn less so, but whether I've made the right adjustments to their performance, I doubt it!

Michele Lostia (ML)

1. Felipe Massa; 2. Robert Kubica; 3. Fernando Alonso; 4. Kimi Raikkonen; 5. Lewis Hamilton

1. Ferrari; 2. BMW Sauber; 3. Renault; 4. Brawn GP; 5. McLaren

In one of the most unpredictable seasons-to-come, I'll just hedge my bets over Felipe Massa: he who won the most races last year and is driving a competitive car – the Ferrari – once again this year.

Reigning world champion Lewis Hamilton, whose McLaren appears to be in trouble, will have his work cut out to keep abreast of the competition. The fight at the top will be fierce, with the BMWs, the Renaults, and the Brawn GP cars all looking to be in with a chance to take race victories.

Emlyn Hughes (EH)

1. Kimi Raikkonen; 2. Fernando Alonso; 3. Felipe Massa; 4. Lewis Hamilton; 5. Jenson Button

1. Ferrari; 2. McLaren; 3. BMW Sauber; 4. Renault; 5. Toyota

Kimi Raikkonen will be back to his best this season, seeing off the challenge from his team-mate Felipe Massa and a resurgent Fernando Alonso. McLaren has already been forced into major aerodynamic upgrades ahead of the first round, and it will take the team several races to settle into the campaign properly.

BMW's points' haul will be shared more equally by Robert Kubica and Nick Heidfeld, allowing the team to maintain third place in the constructors' championship ahead of Renault, where Fernando Alonso will do most of the scoring again. Brawn GP's impressive run of early-season results will help Jenson Button's points tally immensely, but by the end of the year it will be the Scuderia that will be celebrating.

Geoff Creighton (GC)

1. Kimi Raikkonen; 2. Robert Kubica; 3. Felipe Massa; 4. Lewis Hamilton; 5. Jenson Button

1. Ferrari; 2. BMW Sauber; 3. Brawn GP; 4. McLaren; 5. Toyota

It's all change in 2009 and Kimi Raikkonen could be the man to come out on top, providing Ferrari can get the reliability of its challenger under control. BMW's relentless pursuit of KERS could be a big advantage and Brawn GP's sheer speed is likely to put the former Honda team in contention from the outset.

Despite the testing ban, the immense resources at McLaren's disposal should eventually lead to a recovery from the MP4-24's inauspicious winter form, but poor pace early in the season will leave Hamilton with an uphill struggle to defend his crown.

Ross Stonefeld (RS)

1. Kimi Raikkonen; 2. Rubens Barrichello; 3. Jarno Trulli; 4. Felipe Massa; 5. Nick Heidfeld

1. Ferrari; 2. Brawn GP; 3. Toyota; 4. BMW Sauber; 5. Renault

I think Raikkonen will 'click' with these cars and the return to slick tyres will allow him to have an impressive but uninteresting run to the championship. The speed of the Brawn car, especially early in the season, should allow Button's consistency and general avoidance of trouble to rack up the points, with Jarno Trulli sneaking into third with a quietly competitive Toyota.

BMW Sauber's decision to abandon 2008 early to focus on 2009 will help them win some races but it will lose its way (again) as the season goes on. The combined results of Heidfeld and Kubica will keep them ahead of Renault with the weak link in that constructors battle being Piquet.

Simon Strang (SS)

1. Kimi Raikkonen; 2. Robert Kubica; 3. Fernando Alonso; 4. Lewis Hamilton; 5. Jenson Button

1. Ferrari; 2. BMW Sauber; 3. McLaren; 4. Toyota; 5. Brawn GP

Wow, this year is difficult to predict. Brawn, Button and Barrichello look so strong right now, but it's so unprecedented that it's hard to believe they'll win titles, so Kimi is my favourite to bounce back after a poor 2008. Nevertheless, Hamilton can still play a factor in the championship this season, and I don't think we've seen everything from Renault. Then there's BMW and Toyota's testing pace... and what about Red Bull? Never has the cliche that ends with 'Bullshit stops' been more appropriate!

2010

The 2010 AUTOSPORT gamble

At the start of every season, the AUTOSPORT team gets off the fence and picks their tips for the drivers' and constructors' championships. Each member predicts the top five drivers, ranking them from first to fifth, and likewise for the top five teams. The first receives five points, second four, and so on down to fifth. Collating the votes results in what AUTOSPORT predicts will be the standings at the end of the season. In eight months time we'll know whether we rule, or if we're just a bunch of fools...

So Fernando Alonso is our favourite for the title, but only just - Lewis Hamilton isn't far behind, although it is 7-5 to the Spaniard on tips for the crown. Sebastian Vettel is a distant third in the total points, but only trails Lewis 5-3 on outright picks.

Not one of us has picked Felipe Massa to finish in the top two of the championship, which says a lot about the anticipation of the Alonso/Hamilton rivalry.

Reigning world champion Jenson Button is only sixth in the pecking order, and Michael Schumacher isn't much better off – only one person puts him in the top two and four don't think he'll be in the top five.

Ferrari is a more clear favourite in the constructors' predictions, which is a compliment to Massa, with 11 of 15 picking the Italians as winners. McLaren was tipped only twice, equal with Red Bull.

Only two didn't have Mercedes as fourth of the so-called big four, and Williams ran out easy winners over Sauber in the race for best of the rest.

Jonathan Noble, group F1 editor (JN)

1. Lewis Hamilton; 2. Fernando Alonso; 3. Michael Schumacher; 4. Felipe Massa; 5. Jenson Button

1. Ferrari; 2. McLaren; 3. Red Bull; 4. Mercedes; 5. Sauber

The quality of the field at the front of Formula 1 this year will not get over the fact that some of the big four are going to get their cars very spot on, and the others are not.

The momentum of the winter points to McLaren and Ferrari leading the way on race form – likely to be the key factor rather than having the out-and-out quickest car.

Hamilton and Alonso both look in the zone – but expect the others to be chomping at their heels.

Edd Straw, F1 editor (ES)

1. Fernando Alonso; 2. Lewis Hamilton; 3. Jenson Button; 4. Felipe Massa; 5. Michael Schumacher

1. McLaren; 2. Ferrari; 3. Red Bull; 4. Mercedes; 5. Williams

The prospect of an Alonso/Hamilton title fight is irresistible. Both Ferrari and McLaren will be strong and it's difficult to choose between them, but I'm going to go for an Alonso win... just. I expect both to have a very slight edge over their team-mates who will both hang in there as title contenders to the end of the year.

This leaves Schumacher to take fifth – and a few wins – after a slow-burner of a season as Mercedes takes a while to get on terms. Leaving out the Red Bull drivers was tough, but looking at testing, tyre degradation could be the Achilles' heel of a what is a very quick car with top drivers.

I'm tipping the silver corner to nab the constructors' at the last and take Woking's first since 1998. The reality is, you might as well flip a coin. Red Bull will score enough points to take third ahead of Mercedes, and I can see Williams taking "best of the rest" honours even though race wins will probably be beyond it.

Mark Glendenning, deputy F1 editor (MG)

1. Lewis Hamilton; 2. Fernando Alonso; 3. Felipe Massa; 4. Sebastian Vettel; 5. Mark Webber

1. Ferrari; 2. Red Bull; 3. McLaren; 4. Mercedes; 5. Williams

I'll let you in on a secret here – I haven't a clue who's going to come out on top this year. Pre-season predictions are a black art at the best of times, and the disruptions to testing and variability of fuel loads this time around just make it worse.

If McLaren and Ferrari do have the slight advantage that testing seemed to imply, then I'll plump for Hamilton to take his second title but Ferrari's slightly better line-up to secure the constructors' honours.

It's easy to imagine Red Bull again finishing the year as the strongest team, but compromising their season by losing a few early opportunities to reliability problems.

Tony Dodgins, F1 columnist (TD)

1. Lewis Hamilton; 2. Fernando Alonso; 3. Michael Schumacher; 4. Felipe Massa; 5. Sebastian Vettel

1. Ferrari; 2. McLaren; 3. Mercedes; 4. Red Bull; 5. Force India

The Ferrari and McLaren long run pace looks good, but you'd worry about Schumacher being just a couple of tenths adrift with his Bahrain update still to come. A reheating of the Alonso/Hamilton rivalry and a couple of incidents could easily let Michael in, even if the Merc pace isn't quite there.

The Vettel/Webber Red Bull combo could make a mockery of these predictions if the team gets a handle on looking after the tyres. Force India has looked promising and has a couple of strong drivers not as inexperienced as some elsewhere.

Dieter Rencken, F1 columnist (DR)

1. Sebastian Vettel; 2. Fernando Alonso; 3. Michael Schumacher; 4. Lewis Hamilton; 5. Felipe Massa

1. Red Bull; 2. Ferrari; 3. McLaren; 4. Mercedes; 5. Force India

Having been youngest everything – from grand prix participant to winner – bar champion in his brief F1 career, and only this season remaining to plug the gap after placing runner-up in 2009, Vettel will go all out and take it.

Alonso will likely run him close, but only after settling in at Ferrari, with Schumacher and Hamilton not far adrift. Massa's fight will be valiant, but the 2010 grid is absolutely top-drawer.

Red Bull should get its act together earlier than usual, with the bulk of victories being fought out between it and Ferrari. McLaren will lose ground as it adapts to independent status, while the Brawn/Mercedes marriage needs time. Force India is tipped for spoiler role.

Andrew van de Burgt, AUTOSPORT editor (AV)

1. Sebastian Vettel; 2. Fernando Alonso; 3. Lewis Hamilton; 4 Mark Webber; 5. Michael Schumacher

1. Red Bull; 2. Ferrari; 3. McLaren; 4. Mercedes; 5. Williams

This is probably harder to call than any season I can remember. But I get the feeling that it's going to be Red Bull's year. The progress the team made last year showed it has the resources to develop a good car into a great one, and that's going to be crucial this year.

I think Vettel got a lot of mistakes out of his system last year and I expect him to be a more consistent force this season. But it's going to be tight with Ferrari, McLaren and Mercedes winning races regularly.

I think these four will pull clear of the rest with Williams heading the trailing pack – with Hulkenberg the stronger of its drivers by the end of the year.

Simon Strang, AUTOSPORT.com editor (SS)

1. Fernando Alonso; 2. Michael Schumacher; 3. Lewis Hamilton; 4. Jenson Button; 5. Sebastian Vettel

1. Ferrari; 2. McLaren; 3. Mercedes; 4. Red Bull; 5. Williams

Alonso looks happier and more fired up than I've seen him for a long time, and pound for pound is the most complete driver out there. It's a hard one to call this year, because any one of the perceived top four teams could hit the magic formula. And the midfield pack is not that far back.

Having said that, in my recollection, Schumacher was only once not a genuine contender (2005) in the last 13 years of his active F1 career - I just think he'll find a way to be in the mix.

The McLaren champions will be very close as well and you can't rule out the modern-day Red Bull squad either.

Charles Bradley, AUTOSPORT deputy editor (CB)

1. Lewis Hamilton; 2. Fernando Alonso; 3. Felipe Massa; 4. Michael Schumacher; 5. Sebastian Vettel

1. Ferrari; 2. McLaren; 3. Red Bull; 4. Mercedes; 5. Williams

The reason I think Lewis will win a second world title is that he's going to have a true number two in Jenson Button this year, regardless of what anyone at McLaren says.

At the other teams, only Schumacher is going to be dominant, but I don't believe Mercedes is going to be quick enough from the start of the season to deliver the wins he needs for an eighth title.

I think Massa is going to give Alonso a hard enough time early on that it will rattle him, they'll fall out and Felipe won't help him to win the crown – scuppering his chances at the penultimate round in favour of Brazilian GP victory. Ferrari will have scored enough to win the constructors' title, however.

Pablo Elizalde, AUTOSPORT.com managing editor (PE)

1. Fernando Alonso; 2. Sebastian Vettel; 3. Lewis Hamilton; 4. Felipe Massa; 5. Michael Schumacher

1. Ferrari; 2. Red Bull; 3. McLaren; 4. Mercedes; 5. Williams

Although I believe that Ferrari is currently not the quickest team, a fired-up Alonso will make up for that with his talent and consistency, and will emerge on top at the end of the year.

It will be a close battle between him, Vettel and Hamilton, who will show they are in a league apart. Massa will inevitably have to play second fiddle to Alonso, but will still win races, while Schumacher will show he has not lost any skill, but will not have the car to fight for the title.

Matt Beer, AUTOSPORT.com duty editor (MB)

1. Fernando Alonso; 2. Lewis Hamilton; 3. Sebastian Vettel; 4. Felipe Massa; 5. Jenson Button

1. Ferrari; 2. McLaren; 3. Red Bull; 4. Mercedes; 5. Renault

It's early season optimism time so let's predict a three-way title fight between the three most exciting talents of the era, with their team-mates close behind (but Webber probably luckless).

This is supposed to be a gamble, so here's a reckless stab in the dark: Schumacher's comeback will be an anti-climax.

It's going to be easier for Alonso to get up to speed alongside Massa at Ferrari than it is for Button to do likewise alongside Hamilton at McLaren, so the Italian squad will triumph. Behind the closely-matched top four, Renault will edge out Williams, Sauber and Force India thanks to Robert Kubica.

Steven English, AUTOSPORT.com news editor (SE)

1. Lewis Hamilton; 2. Fernando Alonso; 3. Felipe Massa; 4. Jenson Button; 5. Sebastian Vettel

1. Ferrari; 2. McLaren; 3. Red Bull; 4. Mercedes; 5. Sauber

Alonso feels like the favourite – and if Ferrari is a match for McLaren it's hard to see anyone stopping him – but F1 is too unpredictable for that. I have a feeling Hamilton will come through in the end, partly because I think Massa will beat Alonso more often than Button will beat him.

Vettel really should be in the fray too, but I'm not confident the Red Bull will match the big two over 19 races. He should put Webber in the shade again, though. And as for the much-hyped Schumacher return, I don't think he'll have the car for it, and I suspect he'll have his hands full just keeping Rosberg behind him.

Reckon Sauber will be best of the rest. Even though I'm not thrilled by the driver line-up, the car looks very good. Expect it to be close between Force India, Williams and Kubica too.

Glenn Freeman, AUTOSPORT news editor (GF)

1. Fernando Alonso; 2. Lewis Hamilton; 3. Felipe Massa; 4. Michael Schumacher; 5. Sebastian Vettel

1. Ferrari; 2. McLaren; 3. Red Bull; 4. Mercedes; 5. Sauber

Ferrari has probably got a bit in reserve and it was keen to avoid setting many timesheet-topping laps at the Barcelona test. Massa should give Alonso a much harder time than many expect, but I think the Spaniard's fire will be re-lit by having a competitive car again and he'll have the edge, while Hamilton will be right in there in what looks to be a very impressive McLaren.

Schumacher and Mercedes could easily trump everyone with that significant Bahrain update package, but I reckon Ferrari and McLaren's relentless development work will keep them in front.

With little to choose between Alonso and Massa, Ferrari should be in a very strong position. McLaren has the last two world champions so will of course be right up there, and I think Red Bull's continuity over the winter with its driver line-up will mean that both do a solid job whenever the car is on form. Sauber will spring a few surprises this season, that car seems so good on long runs that the races should come to the team as others struggle to look after their tyres.

Jamie O'Leary, AUTOSPORT.com writer (JO)

1. Sebastian Vettel; 2. Lewis Hamilton; 3. Fernando Alonso; 4. Michael Schumacher; 5. Jenson Button

1. McLaren; 2. Ferrari; 3. Red Bull; 4. Mercedes; 5. Sauber

I just don't buy into this theory from testing that the Red Bull is going to kill its tyres over a stint. For a start, there are few tracks in the world that put the kind of demand on rubber as Barcelona. So Vettel is my choice for champion, closely followed by Hamilton.

The Mercedes seems to be about where the Brawn was at the end of 2009, so wins will be hard to come by and Schumacher will probably end up behind Alonso. I'm really looking forward to seeing how these four compare when it rains, though.

Kevin Turner, AUTOSPORT national editor (KT)

1. Fernando Alonso; 2. Lewis Hamilton; 3. Felipe Massa; 4. Sebastian Vettel; 5. Michael Schumacher

1. Ferrari; 2. McLaren; 3. Red Bull; 4. Mercedes; 5. Williams

Despite McLaren's pacesetting during much of testing, Ferrari looks strong. I can't help but feel it is holding something back and the fact that Alonso reckons the F10 is the best car he's driven is ominous. He's also unlikely to make the sort of mistakes, or experience the downturn, that the last two world champions suffered.

I think Button will be better than many expect, but I can't see him matching Hamilton in Lewis's team. The Red Bull looks like it has the odd issue, but Adrian Newey is bound to have found some more performance on last year's pacesetting car, and Vettel is only going to get better.

The Mercedes doesn't look quite good enough at the moment, but it is close. If Schumacher can produce anything like his old magic it would be a surprise to see him outside the top five.

Ben Anderson, AUTOSPORT deputy national editor (BA)

1. Fernando Alonso; 2. Lewis Hamilton; 3. Sebastian Vettel; 4. Felipe Massa; 5. Jenson Button

1. Ferrari; 2. McLaren; 3. Red Bull; 4. Mercedes; 5. Williams

A tough call to make these predictions given how close the field is likely to be again this year (1.1s covered the top 16 drivers' best times after last week's Barcelona test).

McLaren and Ferrari produced sheds last season, but clearly haven't repeated that mistake this year. F1's two powerhouse teams also have the financial might to lead the development race so I expect a return to the formbooks of 2007 and 2008.

Alonso is the most complete driver on the grid and will be hard to stop. I expect Hamilton to run him close as the team leader in all but name at McLaren.

Their respective team-mates will lead the way on occasion, but ultimately end up part of the supporting cast, while I expect Vettel will again leave Webber trailing in his wake, but find the going tougher than he did in 09.

Michael Schumacher and Mercedes GP will easily be best of the rest, but then it gets hard. I expect a re-motivated Kubica to magic big points finishes for Renault, while Williams looks to have genuine pace and its best driver line-up since the days of Montoya and Ralf Schumacher.

2011

The 2011 AUTOSPORT gamble

At the start of every season, the AUTOSPORT team gets off the fence and picks their tips for the drivers' and constructors' championships. Each member predicts the top five drivers, ranking them from first to fifth, and likewise for the top five teams. The first receives five points, second four, and so on down to fifth. Collating the votes results in what AUTOSPORT predicts will be the standings at the end of the season. In eight months time we'll know whether we rule, or if we're just a bunch of fools...

Simon Strang, AUTOSPORT.com editor (SS)

1. Vettel; 2. Alonso; 3. Webber; 4. Schumacher; 5. Hamilton

1. Red Bull; 2. Ferrari; 3. Mercedes; 4. Renault; 5. McLaren

I have a sneaky feeling that Fernando Alonso might actually come out on top this year, but in the end logic prevails and there are just too many factors pointing to Vettel and Red Bull – not least of which is that Sebastian knows how to win titles now. Webber is over last year, but for him being a world champion remains an unknown and all his key rivals now have that knowledge. I still believe Schumacher can bring something to the game while Hamilton and Button will overcome whatever shortcomings exist within the McLaren MP4-26 to play a part this year.

Team-wise Red Bull looks secure in its position as champion, while Ferrari has been ominously efficient in testing. Mercedes turned testing around in the end and, I think, could usurp Renault through the year. McLaren it seems have a lot to do, but if any team can achieve time recovery miracles it's that one. Question remains why it should have to?

Adam Cooper, AUTOSPORT contributing writer (AC)

1. Vettel; 2. Alonso; 3. Webber; 4. Massa; 5. Rosberg

1. Red Bull; 2. Ferrari; 3. Mercedes; 4. Renault; 5. McLaren

No big gambles here I'm afraid! We have to take testing at face value and assume that in essence 2011 will be about Red Bull and Ferrari. After that it's anybody's guess, but I have a feeling that Vettel will be super strong this year, and Webber just won't get the breaks that he had last year.

Obviously a lot of people are backing Alonso and that's a logical assumption, but if I have to make the choice, I'll go with Seb. I expect Massa to be a lot stronger than he was last year, which will make the Ferrari situation more interesting.

Mercedes could turn out to be a more potent force than I'm suggesting here, and I'm also putting a lot of faith in the Renault drivers being able to get the most out of what could be a very good car. I am sure McLaren will make become more competitive as the year goes on but I suspect that they will be too far behind to make too much progress up the order.

Mark Glendenning, AUTOSPORT deputy F1 editor (MG)

1. Vettel; 2. Alonso; 3. Webber; 4. Hamilton; 5. Massa

1. Red Bull; 2. Ferrari; 3. Mercedes; 4. McLaren; 5. Toro Rosso

Red Bull and Ferrari looked like they had things nailed during testing, and the improvements from Mercedes might be just enough to protect them from any mid-season recovery by McLaren. Nevertheless, I'm still not sure whether either of the Mercedes drivers will be consistent enough to feature in the title battle.

Felipe Massa should step up a bit this year – he has little choice if he wants to keep his job – and although the midfield looks even more difficult to pick than it is normally, there was something about Toro Rosso in testing that made me wonder whether it can be this year's surprise package.

Charles Bradley, AUTOSPORT deputy editor (CB)

1. Vettel; 2. Alonso; 3. Hamilton; 4. Webber; 5. Button

1. Red Bull; 2. Ferrari; 3. McLaren; 4. Mercedes; 5. Renault

Now Red Bull has nailed its first title, I can't see anything upsetting its success – not the new moveable wings, Pirelli tyres or the return of KERS. That said, Ferrari's Fernando Alonso will not go down without a fight, and we could be in for the sort of full-on head-to-head duel we haven't seen since Alonso vs Schumacher.

But Vettel should prevail again. McLaren and Mercedes don't seem prepared to challenge the big two from the start, while Renault's drivers simply aren't good enough to beat them.

Pablo Elizalde, AUTOSPORT.com managing editor (PE)

1. Heidfeld; 2. Alonso; 3. Vettel; 4. Hamilton; 5. Rosberg

1. Red Bull; 2. Ferrari; 3. Renault; 4. McLaren; 5. Mercedes

You can call me crazy. Yes, it is very, very unlikely that Nick Heidfeld will be the 2011 world champion, but I prefer to fail (or triumph) spectacularly rather than pick Alonso and then lose out to Vettel. After all, Quick Nick winning the title would be a fairy tale story, and who doesn't like those? In reality, however, Alonso or Vettel will win the title this year, but I reckon the Spaniard will edge the German this season because Ferrari will get things right throughout the whole year.

Hamilton's McLaren will again struggle at the start of the season and that will rule the Briton out of the championship fight, while Rosberg will finally get his first win and enjoy another consistent season, but fighting for the title will be tall order.

Matt Beer, AUTOSPORT.com writer (MB)

1. Vettel; 2. Alonso; 3. Webber; 4. Hamilton; 5. Button

1. Red Bull; 2. McLaren; 3. Ferrari; 4. Renault; 5. Toro Rosso

Yes, that is exactly the same drivers outcome as last year. Sorry to be tedious, but it's looking like Ferrari chasing a slightly faster Red Bull again, and surely with a title under his belt there will be less daftness, more domination from Vettel in 2011.

Even though things have looked bleak for McLaren in testing, it has proved rather good at swiftly going from the back to the front in the recent past, so it will get there.

Tony Dodgins, AUTOSPORT contributing writer(TD)

1. Alonso; 2, Vettel. 3. Webber; 4. Massa; 5. Rosberg

1. Red Bull; 2. Ferrari; 3. Mercedes; 4. Renault; 5. McLaren

Logic tells you to go for Red Bull. They've had a super-reliable testing programme and the RB7 will inevitably be quick. So why am I plumping for Alonso? The Ferrari has run like clockwork too and it's simply that over recent seasons Ferrari chassis have been very easy on their rubber and I think that will be key in 2011.

For that reason I'm going for Fernando to take his first crown in five years. I do think that Vettel/Webber is a better combination than Alonso/Massa though, so will take Christian Horner's troops to retain their constructors crown. The take on McLaren is only because they appear to be starting the year with a deficit.

Jamie O'Leary, AUTOSPORT BTCC editor (JOL)

1. Vettel; 2. Alonso; 3. Webber; 4. Hamilton; 5. Massa

1 Red Bull; 2 Ferrari; 3 McLaren; 4 Renault; 5 Mercedes

Testing form points towards a Red Bull v Ferrari fight this year, and while this may not be the case in Australia, thanks to its usual job of throwing up the unexpected, it should be the early-season pattern. Mark Webber will have a massive task to turn the tide against Sebastian Vettel in the team, and this should allow Ferrari number one Fernando Alonso to take advantage.

Lewis Hamilton will be there or thereabouts, as he was in 2010 – he's too good not to be – but he will probably have to drive out of his skin just to stay in touch with the Red Bulls and Ferraris when things go to plan for the latter teams.

The Renault looks better than the McLaren at the moment, but Nick Heidfeld and Vitaly Petrov is not the line-up that Hamilton and Jenson Button is, while Mercedes, despite a slow start, will still have too much strength to be beaten by Williams or testing surprise Toro Rosso.

Ben Anderson, AUTOSPORT editorial assistant (BA)

1. Vettel; 2. Alonso; 3. Webber; 4. Hamilton; 5. Button

1. Red Bull; 2. Ferrari; 3. McLaren; 4. Renault; 5. Mercedes

Red Bull has had the fastest car in F1 for the past two seasons and it's hard to see that changing this year, which should mean reigning champ Vettel and team-mate Webber will enjoy the lion's share of time at the front.

An Alonso-centred Ferrari can never be discounted and McLaren should be there or thereabouts, while Renault could edge closer to breaking back into the big league with its innovative design – despite the loss of star driver Robert Kubica.

Jonathan Noble, AUTOSPORT F1 group editor (JN)

1. Vettel; 2. Webber; 3. Alonso; 4. Schumacher; 5. Heidfeld

1. Red Bull; 2. Ferrari; 3. Mercedes; 4. Renault; 5. McLaren

New rules, new tyres and new cars – but it still seems that the top team of 2010 is going to be the benchmark again in 2011. With Red Bull Racing's RB7 looking swift in winter testing, and Sebastian Vettel a more confident and consistent driver than he was last year, it is hard seeing anyone beating him.

But even so, there will still be great days for Fernando Alonso, for Renault and for Mercedes GP with Michael Schumacher – who will have taken on board the areas he struggled last year and will knuckle down to prove his comeback was not a mistake.

Kevin Turner, AUTOSPORT national editor (KT)

1. Vettel; 2. Alonso; 3. Webber; 4. Hamilton; 5. Button

1. Red Bull; 2. Ferrari; 3. McLaren; 4. Mercedes; 5. Renault

There have been enough hints in testing that Red Bull will again set the pace and it seems unlikely the team will have the problems, or make the mistakes, that hampered its 2010 challenge. You can't discount Fernando Alonso, especially if the tyre situation makes reacting to changing situations more important, and Ferrari shouldn't be far away.

McLaren and Mercedes have both had troubles in testings, but it's hard not to believe they will not ultimately develop themselves ahead of Renault and Williams, who will probably start the season looking strong. Losing Robert Kubica is a big blow for Renault, but Nick Heidfeld will do a solid job and pick up some decent points if the car is good.

Dieter Rencken, AUTOSPORT.com columnist (DR)

1. Alonso 2. Vettel; 3. Webber; 4. Hamilton; 5. Button

1. Ferrari; 2. Red Bull; 3. McLaren; 4. Renault; 5. Mercedes

Having missed out by a whisker, Fernando Alonso won't let a first Ferrari slip through his fingers again. Expect him to be utterly committed from FP1 in Melbourne through to Brazil's chequer.

But, it will be exceedingly close: Vettel will defend to the last; Mark Webber knows his body clocking is ticking merrily, and the likes of Lewis Hamilton and Jenson Button can't be discounted. Then, Felipe Massa knows he's in last-chance saloon…

Tyres are this season's joker: get them right and you're smiling; screw them and its 'good-bye title', so the team that gets the rubber equation right will take it. Just two will get it right: Ferrari and Red Bull, likely in that order, from McLaren, with Renault springing the odd surprise.

Edd straw, AUTOSPORT F1 editor(ES)

1. Vettel; 2. Webber; 3. Alonso; 4. Hamilton; 5. Heidfeld

1. Red Bull; 2. Ferrari; 3. McLaren; 4. Mercedes; 5. Renault

Red Bull is a real deal as a top team, so it makes sense that its two drivers will end up as the top two in the championship and lead the team to the constructors' title. Even if Fernando Alonso manages to take the crown for Ferrari, it's likely that Felipe Massa won't be able to bring home enough points to grab the constructors' as well.

Although pre-season testing suggests that the season will start with Red Bull pitted against Ferrari, it's incredibly difficult to tell with the wild card of the new Pirelli rubber and the moving goalposts of adjustable wings. Lewis Hamilton's tenacious performances will haul him to fourth in a car that will not start the season in great shape and although I suspect that Renault and Mercedes might have a faster car than Scuderia Woking at the start of the season, the strength of the McLaren line-up will see it to third in the constructors.

Disclaimer: It's almost certain that the above will prove to be utterly wrong.

Andrew van de Burgt, AUTOSPORT editor (AV)

1. Vettel; 2. Alonso; 3. Webber; 4. Hamilton; 5. Heidfeld

1. Red Bull; 2. Ferrari; 3. McLaren; 4. Renault; 5. Mercedes

I expect to see domination of epic proportions this year from Vettel - like last year but without the mistakes and bad luck. Alonso's skills will keep him in the hunt, while Hamilton will have the McLaren in places it has no business being in at the start of the season. A string of fourths, fifths and sixths are the backbone to Heidfeld's season.

As we've seen countless times before, stable rules favour the status quo and I expect Red Bull to dominate until 2013. Ferrari will keep it honest though. McLaren is in trouble at the moment but only a fool would write them off. Expect a mid/late season resurgence. I can't see anyone else winning a race in normal conditions but Renault or Mercedes may just nick one if they read the conditions correctly.

2012

The 2012 AUTOSPORT Gamble

At the start of every season, the AUTOSPORT team picks their tips for the drivers' and constructors' championships. Each member predicts the top five drivers, ranking them from first to fifth, and likewise for the top five teams. The first receives five points, second four, and so on down to fifth. Collating the votes results in what AUTOSPORT predicts will be the standings at the end of the season. In eight months time we'll know whether we rule, or if we're just a bunch of fools...

Andrew van de Burgt, AUTOSPORT Editor-in-chief (AV)

1. Vettel; 2. Hamilton; 3. Button; 4. Webber; 5. Alonso

1. McLaren; 2. Red Bull; 3. Ferrari; 4. Mercedes; 5. Lotus

I think the McLaren drivers are going to put up a great fight, but Williams 1986-style they are going to take points off each other as Vettel comes through to bag a third straight title and a place among the all-time greats.

Ferrari are in trouble now, but will turn it around in time to leapfrog Mercedes. Hamilton and Button will end McLaren's long search for a constructors' title but at the expense of one of them claiming the drivers' crown.

Charles Bradley, AUTOSPORT editor (CB)

1. Vettel; 2. Hamilton; 3. Webber; 4. Button; 5. Rosberg

1. Red Bull; 2. McLaren; 3. Mercedes; 4. Ferrari; 5. Force India

Who is going to stop Vettel becoming only our third-ever back-to-back-to-back world champion? Er, no-one. But I predict that, with his future on the line, Hamilton will regain his previous focus and run him close. Similarly, I'm only putting Webber ahead of Button because of car advantage. Rosberg will outpace Schuey, who will see sense and retire (again).

Teamwise, I reckon Mercedes will make the biggest leap forward, jumping ahead of Ferrari into third, but not yet on a par with Red Bull and McLaren. Force India, with its ambitious and hungry driver pairing, will just shade Lotus for P5.

Simon Strang, AUTOSPORT.com editor (SS)

1. Vettel; 2. Button; 3. Hamilton; 4. Webber; 5. Alonso

1 McLaren; 2. Red Bull; 3. Mercedes; 4. Ferrari; 5. Lotus

I really wanted to put a McLaren driver top of the pile, purely because I think Hamilton and Button can both take the fight to Vettel, but in the end Red Bull's man has more confidence at this point and less reason to entertain lingering questions in his mind. It's going to be a fight to the finish though, and Webber will be back on song and in that scrap too. I think that while Raikkonen will shine, and Mercedes will improve relentlessly for Rosberg and Schumacher, Alonso will pip them all for fifth with a strong Ferrari comeback in the second half of the season.

It's a gamble, so I'm betting on McLaren's renowned strong in-season development to finally outtrump Red Bull and take its first constructors' title in 14 years, particularly since both Hamilton and Button are on record as saying the car is that much better than the MP4-26 was this time last year. Though I'm finding it hard to believe Ferrari won't come back strong, I can't see the team overtaking Mercedes at this point, unless Massa transforms back into his 2008-spec version. Lotus will be in the mix too.

Jonathan Noble, Group F1 editor (JN)

1. Vettel; 2. Hamilton; 3. Button; 4. Webber; 5. Rosberg

1. McLaren; 2. Red Bull; 3. Mercedes; 4. Ferrari; 5. Lotus

It's always a dangerous game trying to make a firm prediction on the outcome of a season before many cars have turned a wheel in anger (Red Bull Racing and McLaren have been hiding their pace completely in testing), but you would have to say that everything looks like being in Vettel's hands again. He and the team can only be stronger – and that's bad news for nearest rival McLaren.

It will be the usual suspects at the front of the field again – with little separating Red Bull and McLaren. However, an improved car and totally on-song Lewis Hamilton and Jenson Button will help McLaren overcome its rival and take its first constructors' title since 1998. Ferrari will also stage a late-season recovery, but it will not be enough to make up the ground lost to Mercedes at the start of the campaign.

Edd Straw, F1 editor (ES)

1. Vettel; 2. Button; 3. Webber; 4. Hamilton; 5. Alonso

1. Red Bull; 2. McLaren; 3. Mercedes; 4. Lotus; 5. Ferrari

Predictions are a dangerous game, especially when made on flimsy pre-season testing evidence and with countless variables to take into account. But despite that, it's impossible to look beyond Vettel and Red Bull as 2012 drivers' and constructors' champions. It seems that McLaren and Mercedes are the nearest challengers, with Lotus not far off. Drivers'-championship wise, I'm going to go for a repeat of last year, with Button second thanks to a combination of his consistency and intelligence and a strong McLaren. But it's going to be pretty tight covering the top half-dozen or more, so it's basically a coin-toss from here.

I've gone for Webber to improve on last year and have a few more days when he troubles Vettel, and Hamilton to be in the mix, with Alonso nicking fifth thanks to his relentless consistency and an improving Ferrari. Teamwise, it's Red Bull from McLaren, with Mercedes and Lotus scoring strongly and Ferrari down in fifth – with Felipe Massa unable to back up Alonso's scoring rate.

Kevin Turner, Features editor (KT)

1. Vettel; 2. Hamilton; 3. Button; 4. Webber; 5. Alonso

1. Red Bull; 2. McLaren; 3. Ferrari; 4. Mercedes; 5. Lotus

Vettel put in one of the great F1 seasons last year and, with another Newey masterpiece, there's no reason to think he won't be as strong this time around. I like the way Button races, but surely Hamilton will go better this year. I expect them both to beat Webber, who must be in his final Red Bull season. Despite the problems Ferrari seem to be having, Alonso will always get something out of it and I expect him to finish best of the rest.

With the rules remaining pretty stable, it's hard to look beyond Red Bull when it comes to who will have the best car. McLaren seems to have made a better start than in recent seasons and should be the closest challenger. Ferrari may not start the season in third, but with its resources – and Alonso – it's bound to end in the top three. I expect Mercedes and Lotus to close the gap to the Big Three, but ultimately not beat them. Force India, with one of the most exciting driver line-ups on the grid, could well challenge the bigger squads to begin with, but is likely to lose out in the development race.

Glenn Freeman, News editor (GF)

1. Vettel; 2. Hamilton; 3. Button; 4. Webber; 5. Alonso

1. McLaren; 2. Red Bull; 3. Mercedes; 4. Ferrari; 5. Lotus

As nice as it would be to see Mercedes or Lotus mixing it for regular race wins, in stable regulations I just can't see it. Vettel should have a tougher time of things this year, but the chances of the McLaren drivers taking points off each other (especially if we have a resurgent Hamilton) could let him slip through the net.

The strength of McLaren's line-up could cost it the drivers' title, but the other side of that coin is that it should land an elusive first constructors' crown since 1998 as a consolation. If the Ferrari starts the season as a dog of a car, there could be a lot of drivers able to get between Fernando Alonso and Felipe Massa, costing the Scuderia dearly in the standings.

Jamie O'Leary, Reports editor (JOL)

1. Vettel; 2. Hamilton; 3. Webber; 4. Button; 5. Alonso

1. Red Bull; 2. McLaren; 3. Mercedes; 4. Ferrari; 5. Lotus

The picture from testing indicates that Vettel will begin the year with a target on the side of his Red Bull in terms of pace, but the updated RB8 missed crucial mileage at Barcelona and that could leave it vulnerable to the impressive-looking McLaren. If the MP4-27 is as good as it looks, expect a rejuvenated Lewis Hamilton to get the best out of it and fight for a second title.

Ferrari appears to be up the creek without a paddle, and the points lost in the early-season flyaways will prevent Alonso mounting a title challenge. Expect a massive update for the Mugello test though, and a far more competitive package afterwards, which should be enough to get the Spaniard ahead of Raikkonen's Lotus and the Mercedes pair.

Mark Glendenning, US editor (MG)

1. Vettel; 2. Hamilton; 3. Button; 4. Webber; 5. Schumacher

1. McLaren; 2. Red Bull; 3. Mercedes; 4. Lotus; 5. Ferrari

A trawl through the archive revealed that I've been doing these pre-season Gambles since 2000, so there's no reason to stop getting them wrong now. This time around I'm opting for Vettel to take his third drivers' title, although a strong pre-season for McLaren could translate into a good start to the year for Hamilton and Button. Schumacher should also relish what looks to be an improved Mercedes, provided that he can maintain his advantage over Rosberg.

Red Bull appears to have the early impetus once again, but McLaren is not far behind. One thing that McLaren is especially good at is development during the season, and this could be the catalyst in delivering the constructors' title to Woking for the first time since 1998. Things should be close between Mercedes and Lotus, especially if Grosjean can chip in with a few points rather than leaving all the work to Raikkonen. Ferrari? As things stand, the cons outweigh the pros.

Pablo Elizalde, Web managing editor (PE)

1. Vettel; 2. Hamilton; 3. Alonso; 4. Rosberg; 5. Button

1. McLaren; 2. Red Bull; 3. Mercedes; 4. Ferrari; 5. Lotus

I have a lot to live up to after having bet on Nick Heidfeld last year… Having said that – and despite the fact that this piece is called the AUTOSPORT Gamble (‘gamble' being the key word) – I'm going to be slightly more conservative this year and say that Sebastian Vettel will grab his third consecutive title.

I believe the Red Bull will not be as strong as it was last year, but the world champion will still make the best of it to beat a rejuvenated Lewis Hamilton, who will have the best car of the field in several races, helping McLaren clinch the constructors' championship.

Ferrari will endure another difficult season but Fernando Alonso will continue to flatter the Italian car with his performances. Nico Rosberg will score his first grand prix win in a stronger Mercedes, while Jenson Button will be unable to repeat the kind of showing he put on during the 2011 season.

Mark Hughes, Grand prix editor (MH)

1. Vettel; 2. Hamilton; 3. Webber; 4 Button; 5. Rosberg

1. Red Bull; 2. McLaren; 3. Mercedes; 4. Ferrari; 5. Lotus

Vettel and Red Bull; the fastest car, one of the very fastest drivers = third title. I can't believe Hamilton is going to have another unfocused year so he will be back to his best, but from a pre-season perspective I'm finding it difficult to believe McLaren will be quite as quick as Red Bull. Webber will have a more competitive 2012 than '11, as I'm figuring that he will have got on top of the Pirelli challenge better. Button will have his usual mix of stunning drives and other weekends where the car won't work for him, and I expect Rosberg to maximise a much-improved car, but still reckon McLaren will have the edge.

Red Bull will set the standard as I still don't believe the secret of this line of cars has been decoded. McLaren will finish a closer second than in 2011, but still second. Mercedes may score the odd race win and regularly mix it with McLaren maybe, while Ferrari should also score race wins but with patchy form from a very different car. I also expect podiums and good competitive performances from both Lotus drivers.

Henry Hope-Frost, Sub-editor/AUTOSPORT presenter (HHF)

1. Vettel; 2, Hamilton; 3. Button; 4. Webber; 5. Alonso

1. McLaren; 2. Red Bull; 3. Ferrari; 4. Mercedes; 5. Lotus

Better stick to what I think will probably happen, rather than what I'd like to happen. There's little evidence to suggest the Vettel/Red Bull steamroller won't continue to flatten all around it. Behind him, Hamilton will have the edge over Button this time, simply because he has to. Webber will use his car advantage to keep the faster but frustrated Alonso at bay.

The super-consistent Button will be better backed up by Hamilton in 2012, meaning McLaren will pip Red Bull to its first makes' title since 1998. Alonso and his last-chance team-mate Felipe Massa will keep on scoring for Ferrari, while Mercedes (again mega at some tracks, mediocre at others) will finish best of the rest. Rounding out my top five will be Lotus, thanks to the rejuvenated talents of Raikkonen and Grosjean.

Marcus Simmons, Chief sub-editor (MS)

1. Vettel; 2. Button; 3. Webber; 4. Hamilton; 5. Raikkonen

1. Red Bull; 2. McLaren; 3. Mercedes; 4. Lotus; 5. Ferrari

Vettel is still on top form at the moment and there is no reason to suspect that any technical team led by Adrian Newey is going to drop the ball – or even let any of the others get close. Button just amazes me with the way his career continues to mature and I can see him running Vettel closer this year than last. Hamilton hasn't yet proved that he can process the demands thrown up by current-era F1 in the same way that Button can. Raikkonen I feel was written off by people who didn't understand what was going on at Ferrari.

Although I think Lotus man Raikkonen will head both Mercedes, I think the Rosberg/Schumacher partnership is more capable of bringing home consistent points for the three-pointed star. No disrespect to Grosjean, and I'd be delighted if he performs well as it would hopefully encourage more teams to bring in drivers from the junior ranks. I'm sure Ferrari will recover from the current strife with the car, but unfortunately the team only has one driver capable of driving quickly without hitting other cars.

Ben Anderson, National editor (BA)

1. Vettel; 2. Button; 3. Hamilton; 4. Webber; 5. Alonso

1. Red Bull; 2. McLaren; 3. Mercedes; 4. Ferrari; 5. Lotus

Consensus says Red Bull and McLaren have produced the best cars this year, so I expect their drivers will fight it out for the title. Hopefully, the McLaren boys will give Vettel more of a run for his money this year. The Ferrari hasn't looked good so far, but it will improve, and Alonso has an extraordinary habit of finishing higher up than his car should allow.

Much will depend on how well the McLaren drivers and Webber fare. If Hamilton is back on top form then the Woking team may well pip Red Bull to the constructors' title, unless Webber's form improves too, in which case I expect RBR will stay top of the pile. Ferrari's early issue may allow an improving Merc team to get ahead, but I think Lotus will just have enough to see off a very strong Force India line-up.

Geoff Creighton, AUTOSPORT.com technical team leader (GC)

1. Vettel; 2. Hamilton; 3. Button; 4. Webber; 5. Alonso

1. Red Bull; 2. McLaren; 3. Mercedes; 4. Ferrari; 5. Lotus

Few would bet against a third straight title triumph for Vettel, but the onset of teething problems with the RB8 in testing could be the opportunity Hamilton needs to bounce back from a torrid 2011 and take the fight to the clear favourite, pushed all the way by impressive team-mate Button. Alonso will always make the best of the tools at his disposal, but it could be a tough campaign for the Spaniard unless Ferrari can quickly unlock the secrets of its troublesome challenger.

Red Bull is set for further constructors' glory – providing it quickly returns to the bulletproof reliability demonstrated last year – but the champion team will need Webber to deliver greater consistency in backing up his team-mate or the strong McLaren pairing will provide a serious challenge. Mercedes looks to be closer to the ultimate pace this year, depending on how well it can race the Pirelli rubber, while on testing form Ferrari seems set for a frustrating season and a scrap with the potentially-impressive Lotus outfit.

Matt Beer, Web duty editor (MB)

1 Vettel; 2 Button; 3 Hamilton; 4 Alonso; 5 Grosjean

1 McLaren; 2 Red Bull; 3 Mercedes; 4 Ferrari; 5 Lotus

Predicting that F1 2012 will be closer than F1 2011 is one thing, predicting that means Vettel will be deposed is another entirely. It would be good to see the new era's dominant German made to work a little harder, but he had such a big comfort margin in hand last year that a third title seems an obvious outcome. It looks like it will be McLaren giving chase, at least while Ferrari gets to grips with the F2012, but it's hard to imagine Alonso going winless all year.

Lotus and Mercedes sneaking into the mix would be fantastic as well, and the black-and-gold cars in particular hinted at great things in testing. So the deliberately bold part of this gamble is my optimistic pick for fifth in the drivers' championship, as Grosjean gets the chance to show how much better he is than the troubled 2009 version that first appeared in F1.

Adam Cooper, AUTOSPORT contributor (AC)

1. Button; 2. Vettel; 3. Hamilton; 4. Alonso; 5. Rosberg.

1. McLaren; 2. Red Bull; 3. Mercedes; 4. Ferrari; 5. Lotus

It really is an impossible ask this year, but if I have to go for someone it will be Button, if only on the basis that it will be a close run thing and whoever wins will do it on those hard-won thirds and fourths. I think Hamilton will have a better season than last year but he just seems to attract aggro and may have some expensive retirements. This time last year we were writing off McLaren, and I think it will be dangerous to do that to Ferrari. I suspect that Alonso will become a factor as the year goes on. I would love to put Raikkonen in this group but can't find space – let's put him sixth!

Again it will be very close in the constructors'. I think Red Bull could well be the team to beat but it won't have the advantage (and possibly reliability) that we saw last year, and McLaren may just edge it on the combined results of its drivers. I've given Mercedes the edge over Ferrari but both may very well be trumped by Lotus if the car is as good as it appeared to be in testing. Whether that momentum can be maintained until November is another question.

Tony Dodgins, AUTOSPORT contributor (TD)

1. Vettel; 2. Hamilton; 3. Webber; 4. Button; 5. Rosberg

1. Red Bull; 2. McLaren; 3. Mercedes; 4. Lotus; 5. Ferrari

I think Red Bull will still be the pacesetters in 2012, but it will be tighter and I can see a resurgent, more focused Hamilton pushing hard. You always feel nervous leaving Alonso and Ferrari out of a top five but they could have a tough year, certainly at the beginning, and I fancy Rosberg could emerge as stronger force.

Red Bull is obviously on the crest of a wave and I just see that continuing, with McLaren the strongest opposition. Mercedes has a very strong technical line-up and it underperformed last year, as did Renault, so with decent driver line-ups and evidently strong reliability, I can see it causing problems for Ferrari. Might look a bit daft in eight months' time though…

Dieter Rencken, AUTOSPORT contributor (DR)

1. Vettel; 2. Webber; 3. Hamilton; 4. Button; 5. Alonso

1. Red Bull; 2. McLaren; 3. Ferrari; 4. Mercedes; 5= Lotus/Force India

Vettel is on a mission: to be youngest ‘everything' driver, and stands on the cusp of being F1's youngest triple champion, and one of only three such drivers in F1 history. Combine that with sublime skill and superb Red Bull team and engineering support, and the final result is not in doubt. Nor is that of runner-up Mark Webber, who has the same RB8, plus is burning after being overshadowed for three straight years. Hamilton has a goer from the start in the MP4-27 and is well on the way to sorting his life, but the blue team will prove a bridge too far, as it will for Button, who will prove formidable on his day. Alonso? The Spaniard should be up there chasing Vettel for the youngest triple crown – but F2012 will let him down, if only at the start.

Red Bull chased by McLaren is the likely story of the constructors', with Ferrari and Mercedes scrapping it out for third, and Lotus/Force India there or thereabouts. The first two each have superb driver pairings, while the Italian and German squads rely on one-and-a-half each, which will make the ultimate difference. Fifth place will be down to whether Raikkonen can play the Paul di Resta/Nico Hulkenberg combo – and how much Grosjean intervenes – for on performance there is little to choose between the black/gold and gaudy cars.

Sam Tremayne, AUTOSPORT writer (ST)

1. Vettel; 2. Hamilton; 3. Webber; 4. Button; 5. Rosberg

1. Red Bull; 2. McLaren; 3. Mercedes; 4. Ferrari; 5. Force India

It's hardly original picking Vettel for the top spot, but the reigning champion was always going to be the man to beat. In fact, it's remarkable how likely it seems that the German will claim a third straight crown, given that only two men in F1 history have previously managed the feat. The hope of course is that someone can get closer to him than they managed last year, and to that end I've gone for Hamilton – too often the master of his own downfall in 2011, at his best he still probably constitutes Vettel's biggest threat.

Testing form suggests the season will start with Red Bull pitted against McLaren. Previous years have shown how dangerous it can be to read too much into testing, but it's difficult to imagine either team not being in the fight come the end of the season. The real battle may be slightly further back. Ferrari is in trouble and, while only a fool would write it off completely, the door does appear to be open for Mercedes to jump into third.

2013

Trackside verdict: F1 2013's contenders rated

Former McLaren mechanic Marc Priestley joins AUTOSPORT's Kevin Turner at Barcelona and analyses the form of this year's field from the trackside

By Kevin Turner AUTOSPORT features editor

Finally, we've got some proper dry running! The third day of Formula 1's final pre-season Barcelona test is sunny and AUTOSPORT decides to head trackside to get a look at the form of the cars as they approach their Australian Grand Prix specifications.

With us is former McLaren mechanic Marc Priestley. Not only did he rise through the ranks at the Woking squad, playing a key part in Lewis Hamilton's 2008 title-winning campaign, but he has also spent a lot of time talking to teams over the last few days, so he's the ideal man to add some insight.

Priestley is familiar with how confusing testing can be, but reckons there are ways to find out where teams are at.

"It's probably been the most unrepresentative pre-season test period for years," he says. "And you really can't read anything into the times; the teams are not just looking for lap times.

"But within the team you'll have a baseline fuel load you use year in, year out. When you have people move between teams those numbers get around so everyone gets a rough idea of where they're at and what the pecking order is."

Our man Turner with Marc Priestley © Chris Bird

There is also, of course, what you can see on-track, watching how the cars behave, so we first head to the right-left-right sequence of Turns 1, 2 and 3.

"It's a good spot, with heavy braking and then change of direction," reckons Priestley. "You're looking for one smooth movement of the wheel. Anything more and you are losing time."

We're also pretty close to the exit of Turn 5 and the entry to the left-right of Turn 7/8, so we should see something useful.

Mercedes

After some installation laps from several cars, Lewis Hamilton's Mercedes and the McLaren of Sergio Perez start a run. We're expecting some qualifying simulations, so we should see the 2013 cars at their current best.

Marc is immediately impressed by the Mercedes F1 W04. "The Mercedes looks a bit better through here than the McLaren, a bit more planted, with a slightly better change of direction," he says.

"It's probably worth noting that Perez is using the kerb a lot more than Lewis, who looks a bit more controlled.

Mercedes is looking good, according to Priestley © LAT

"The Mercedes also looks a bit softer in terms of roll; it squats down on the right rear. If the car's a little bit oversteery, giving it a little more roll can help. But it's a trade-off because you don't want so much it throws the weight around."

Hamilton is then too hot into Turn 1 and runs wide. Later, he also has a moment at the Turn 7 left-hander, briefly losing the rear end.

Next time through he's still on it and again looks impressive. "It's got really good change of direction," adds Priestley.

"I think there's a bit of a feeling Mercedes is playing things down massively. From what I've seen they're coming on quite nicely."

McLaren

Perez never looks quite so comfortable and Priestley believes McLaren is still not on top of the MP4-28, despite Jenson Button's apparent pace during the pre-season.

"I think the team is struggling to understand why it can put together a lap time," he says. "You need to know why and I don't think it does yet.

"McLaren is also struggling to make set-up changes at the front, particularly with the new pull-rod suspension. Jenson's been saying there is too much downtime between runs."

McLaren still doesn't understand its car © LAT

The one positive for McLaren is that its radical approach to its 2013 machine could give it more development potential than its main rivals, who have produced more evolutionary cars.

"It will have a lot more scope to develop the car in theory," agrees Priestley.

"McLaren is very good at developing a car and I do expect it to be able to steal a march at some point in the year, assuming it can get its head around the pull-rod – that's a brave move."

Red Bull

Priestley worked with Adrian Newey at McLaren and is keen to see his latest creation, the RB9. We have to wait a while and even then the focus seems to be on aero runs and gathering info rather than gunning for a fast time.

Mark Webber heads out and, unlike the day before, Red Bull is not running its passive DRS.

A little later, Webber comes out on mediums. "That looks really good," says Marc. "It looks smooth and fast."

Priestley reckons Red Bull will be quick again © LAT

On his first flying lap, Webber goes third fastest and it doesn't look like a huge effort. The entry speed is high and there is good traction. A typical Newey Red Bull then, even if the team has yet to reveal the full extent of the car's pace.

"I don't believe there's such a thing as sandbagging in F1," reckons Priestley.

"But it may be that Red Bull's baseline fuel load is quite high. It may not be to throw people off, it just may be its programme.

"There's a little concern in the paddock that Red Bull is very quick again."

Ferrari and Lotus

"Lotus had a very good car last year and the team seems quite happy with the E21," says Priestley. "I'm quite keen to see Kimi Raikkonen in it in the dry."

Unfortunately, we won't see that today. Kimi is unwell and replacement driver Davide Valsecchi doesn't do a proper run while we're out.

There's been talk that the recent FIA ruling, which stopped Renault changing its engine mapping for 2013, could hurt Lotus, but Priestley disagrees: "The team says it won't hurt and I don't think it will make much difference."

Many tip the Lotus as a contender, but we simply haven't seen its best during this session.

It's a similar story with Ferrari. Felipe Massa takes the F138 out on hard tyres and locks up into Turn 1. In fairness, he is still trying to get heat into the rubber, but even later in the run it still seems to lack front-end bite.

Massa's Ferrari lacked front-end bite © LAT

"The low temperatures aren't great for any of the tyres, but Pirelli's Paul Hembery said the mediums will probably be the most representative," says Priestley.

"I don't think you can overplay the role of track temperature. It'll still be a case of getting the tyres in their working window; the difference this year is just that teams know how bad it can be if you don't do that!"

After AUTOSPORT has to return to the paddock, Massa goes out on the soft tyre and ends up third fastest, albeit over a second behind Hamilton's Mercedes.

The midfield battle

The tight midfield often provides some of the closest fights in F1 and, if last year is anything to go by, a race winner could emerge from it too.

Sauber's new recruit Esteban Gutierrez is one of the first out on day three.

Initially he has lots of understeer at the first corner, but the young Mexican is one of the best to watch as he tries to find the limit of the C32. He uses more kerb than most exiting Turn 5 and looks quick.

"I think that's got good potential, especially with Nico Hulkenberg," says Marc. "I have high hopes for him this year, he's a very switched-on guy.

"The car has got some nice things on it, like the sidepod shape. Sauber is not afraid to try something new, which can be quite unusual for a midfield team."

Adrian Sutil's Force India is another to leave his best until after we've gone, but later bangs in a time good enough for second, underlining how close the midfield teams may get to the big guns in the right circumstances this season.

Williams is looking good © XPB

Williams managed that last year at this very circuit, although today is going less well. The late arrival of new parts delays Pastor Maldonado's running, but Priestley believes the Grove team is looking strong after its breakthrough 2012.

"I was down there yesterday and they're really positive," he says. "I don't think they're going to set the world alight, but they're looking good. The team believes it has made a step with the FW35."

Toro Rosso is the final squad aiming for that coveted top six slot in the constructors' table. The STR8 has looked pretty good in slippery conditions and Jean-Eric Vergne was upbeat about the new upgrades on day one of the test, but a question mark remains over its dry pace.

Vergne arrives at Turn 1 locked-up, with smoke coming off the front tyres, and the car lacks grip compared to the Mercedes that is circulating at the same time.

"When you look at the Toro Rosso he's not coming anywhere near the white line [on the exit of the Turn 2 left-hander]," observes Priestley. "The quicker cars with more momentum will get thrown out to the line."

Caterham vs Marussia

With the loss of HRT, the battle of the newest teams in F1 is now between just Caterham and Marussia.

Caterham has traditionally had the edge on speed, but the CT03 looks a handful as Giedo van der Garde starts pushing. It can't seem to carry the speed into the corners and also has trouble putting the power down.

Priestley thinks Marussia looks better than Caterham © LAT

"Caterham seems to be struggling and they've apparently not got any major upgrades coming until the European season, so it's only going to get worse," says Priestley.

Though not super-quick, the Marussia MR02 looks solid as new signing Jules Bianchi gets his first run in the car.

"Marussia has a tech link-up with McLaren and it's started to pay dividends," adds Priestley. "It also has KERS, which gives you a big chunk of performance. It cost them dearly last year not having KERS."

Summary

From what we've seen, the Mercedes looks impressive, an observation backed up by the fact Hamilton is comfortably on top of the timing screens when AUTOSPORT returns to the paddock.

Red Bull's RB9 could reveal itself as the best car of 2013 when things get even more serious, while McLaren, Ferrari and, in particular, Lotus have shown promise too, but weren't at their best while we were trackside.

Overall, Priestley believes things should be tight. "I imagine it'll be relatively close because not a lot has changed and the midfield and smaller teams have been able to copy ideas," he says.

"Tomorrow will hopefully tell us quite a bit. There will still be vans and trucks turning up at the track with parts tonight.

"Tomorrow afternoon will be really interesting, but temperature changes cars so much we could get to Melbourne and it be totally different!"

[Zеrg]

ex-The head of Corse Clienti, Antonello Coletta

Головокружительный карьерный рост

[Fixxxer89]

Как-то так? но там подходы несколько иные, а по 13 вообще какого-то чёткого прогноза не нашёл.

Ну, на 2009 прогноз зафэйлен, на 2010 не угадан, дальше уже с угадыванием поворотов сюжета проще.

[MSForever]

Пишут что Феррари использовали другие точки на трассе для отсечем времени...

[Lonesome]

Пишут что Феррари использовали другие точки на трассе для отсечем времени...

Зачем?

[First Lady]

Пишут что Феррари использовали другие точки на трассе для отсечем времени...

совсем скоро напишут, что в Бахрейне не команда Феррари тестила, а ее брат-близнец

[Zеrg]

Пишут что Феррари использовали другие точки на трассе для отсечем времени...

И что? От этого как-то изменяется километраж пройденный за круг?

[Геша]

Пишут что Феррари использовали другие точки на трассе для отсечем времени...

Ну а кто то же наверняка засекал всех в одной точке?

[First Lady]

Зачем?

2 секунди объяснит не просто.

[Loiste]

Головокружительный карьерный рост

и конечно же снова итальянец..))

[Lonesome]

Походу у нас дела плохи. Посмотрим конечно же в Австралии как будут дела, но что-то подсказывает мне, что дела там не очень будут...

[First Lady]

И что? От этого как-то изменятся километраж пройденный за круг?

теория есть, что начинали круг по обратной прямой, т.е. разгонялись по другому

[Геша]

2 секунди объяснит не просто.

Было бы куда проще вообще ничего не объяснять,но не поймут же .

[MSForever]

И что? От этого как-то изменяется километраж пройденный за круг?

от этого может поменяться время на круге.

[Lonesome]

от этого может поменяться время на круге.

Как может поменяться?

[Cavallino]

Маркиз вещал Газетте, что есть проблемы с софтуером.

извини, не понял. Проблема с софтом (резина) или программным обеспечением?

[First Lady]

извини, не понял. Проблема с софтом (резина) или программным обеспечением?

ПО

[leonid84]

Предлагаю запасаться бухлом, чтобы топить горе в нём